How the West Will Be Won: Dallas' Long Road Back

Call this one instinct as well; I see a Dallas vs. Chicago NBA Finals match up.  The Eastern Conference finals is a little tougher to call, as the Miami Heat and their "Big 3" have more than enough talent, offensive firepower, and playoff experience to give Chicago a tough go of it.  And even though the Bulls pulled away in impressive fashion in the second half last night, it's easy to say that their series could go either way.  I just have to go with Chicago based purely on the opinion of Chicago being a better overall team and more importantly, being better at playing TEAM BASKETBALL.  My reasoning for picking Dallas is much more simplistic;  the Mavericks are just that much better than the Thunder.

First things first, you always gotta go to the numbers because they don't lie.  As a team, Dallas is shooting 47% from the field, 41% from beyond the arc and 52% in two point field goals along with 22 assists per game.  They have 5 players averaging double figures in points and have held home court advantage throughout the post season.  The Thunder, on the other hand, are shooting 41% from the field, 32% from the 3 point line, and 47% from inside the arc.  And in the playoffs, their assist per game has gone down by three to an average of 17 per game.  With only 3 players averaging in double figures, it's obvious to see how inequitable their scoring is.  Despite having the league's scoring champ in Kevin Durant, it's hard to see this one going to a game 7.  The Mavericks have the Thunder outmatched in every facet of the game.

It's been a tough road for Dallas and more specifically their superstar, Dirk Nowitzki.  After being up 2-0 in the 2006 Finals, the Mavericks folded like oragami under the offensive onslaught of Dwayne Wade and the Miami Heat, losing the next 4 straight in one of the greatest collapses in NBA post season history.  Now I did say one of the greatest collapses because after an appearance in the finals, the following year the Mavericks were ousted as a number one seed by Baron Davis and the eighth seeded Golden State Warriors in six games during the first round.  Ironically, this happened to be the same year that Dirk won his MVP award and the Mavs won 67 regular season games.  In fact, in the the next four seasons after their finals debacle, we saw Dallas post over 50 wins each year during the regular season but never make it past the second round of the playoffs, with three of the past four playoff runs ending in the first round to supposedly "inferior" teams.  And Dirk Nowitzki, as the face of the franchise, bore all of the blame.   

But this year seems to be different.  To use one of the most overused phrases in sports, the Mavs look like they have turned the proverbial "corner".  You don't get lucky and sweep the two time defending NBA champs, you have to be THAT good.   This is their year, this is their time.  Jason Kidd is playing his best basketball at the exact right time.  Both Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic are such legitimate knock down shooters that they are drawing defenders away from Dirk.  Tyson Chandler is utilizing all of his athletic talents and bringing that added dimension to the Mavs' interior game to compliment Brendan Haywood's interior defense.  And Shawn Marion always gives you that X-factor (along with the ugliest jump shot in the history of basketball), whether it's on the defensive end against the opponent's top scorer or running the fast break to perfection.  Their bench is contributing in a big way and have outscored their opponents in the first two rounds by an average of 10 points.  Bottom line is that this team is hitting on all cylinders and looks very poised, and polished.  That's something we could never say about Dirk's Mavs before.

Oklahoma City has accomplished a great deal to get to this point, and they are a very young and athletic team with a ton of potential.  But Dallas will mow them down in 5 games, I'm calling it right now.