We hear it over and over again from every media outlet and talking head out there in the sports world; the NFL has become a finesse game predicated by high powered passing offenses. And it is absolutely true. The times of one signature back getting upwards of 25 carries a game and controlling the tempo on the ground is no longer a viable offense in today's league. We saw the confirmation last Thursday night, when only one RB was taken in the first round. ONE RUNNING BACK!!! And remember, the Saints had to trade to get back into the first round to select a player who had won the Heisman Trophy, starred on a national championship team, and was as productive a player as any that had come along in the last 20 years all while playing against top flight competition in, arguably, college football's best conference. But none of that mattered to the other 26 teams that took a pass (no pun intended) on Ingram.
We saw a consistent theme in this year's draft picks, all based on the QB position. Take a closer look at the picks in the first round: 4 QBs, 8 OL, 9 DE/pass rushing specialists. That adds up to 21 out of 32 picks specifically meant to either (a) run the passing game, (b) protect the passer, or (c) get him to the ground. Now, 4 QBs were taken in the first round and we've seen that in other draft classes with the results always being the same, busts of epic proportions. Remember the 1999 draft? A total of 5 QBs went in the first round: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McNown and Daunte Culpepper. Two turned in pro bowl seasons and multiple playoff appearances, while the other 3 flamed out within 3 years. We can see similarites between these draft classes if we take a closer look. At most, 2 of these guys (Couch & McNabb) had first round level talent and were expected to be day one starters. Yet, QB desperate teams reached on Smith, McNown and were forced to throw these guys to the lions from day one. Here we are, 12 draft classes later and we are seeing history repeat itself. Why? Because the game has changed. The rules, the plays, the athletes, everything has evolved and the days of the great running back are over.
Think about it, how often did you see teams line up in the I Formation last season? Today's game is built on speed, by spreading teams out and using the entire field to attack a defense. To do that, you have to have a QB that can deliver the ball on time and accurately. As much as analysts want to say that Christian Ponder is going to just have to hand the ball of the AP and not be forced to do as much, that is 100% false. If that were the case, Travaris Jackson would still be their QB. A great passing offense can mask a poor running attack (e.g. 2008 Arizona Cardinals), but the opposite is not true. Teams stacked the box and learned to contain Adrian Peterson. In 2009, Tennessee Titans RB Chris Johnson ran for 2,006 yards and compiled another 530 receiving, shattering the previous record held by Steven Jackson for total offensive yards gained in a single season. How did the Titans finish that year? They finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs largely due to poor QB play from both Kerry Collins and Vince Young.
In today's game, you have to have a passing game that is effective enough to keep defenses honest in how they play you. You have to have a threat through the air to be able to be competitive in this league, and it is why teams such as Carolina, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Jacksonville all struggled at times with poor QB play last year. So, in today's NFL, it's hard to say these teams reached in grabbing a QB early in the draft. The risk versus reward is always going to favor drafting a QB, because Jim Brown's days are done. The QB is going to have to win you the game, so teams now find it OK to take a chance because if they don't, then they'll continue to mire in mediocrity.
At least they can tell the fans that they tried.....
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